Hosszú távú, előretekintő regionális növekedési pályák vizsgálata a visegrádi országokban az útfüggőség kontextusában
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Date
2020
Authors
Zsibók, Zsuzsanna
Páger, Balázs
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Innovariant Kft
Abstract
There are only a few papers in the scientific literature that deal with the analysis of the regional economic growth paths and spatial inequalities in the Visegrad countries in a forward-looking approach. Through adapting a method published by the European Union, we investigate the expected long-term spatial processes with extrapolative techniques, according to a „business-as-usual“ approach. In line with this, we embed our research in the theoretical framework of path dependence. In order to see a broader picture, it is worth checking the accuracy of the predictions with the method of out-of-sample testing. This means that we use a known, historical data set, and split it to a „learning“ period and a „test“ period, then use statistical loss functions to compute the deviations between the actual and the predicted gross domestic products. Our results indicate that those projection methods fit best the context of path dependency that are able to simultaneously take into account the past regional-level growth trends and the national-level projected growth path.
Description
Keywords
visegrádi országok , területi egyenlőtlenségek , regionális fejlődés - visegrádi országok , útfüggőség , gazdasági előrejelzés , előrejelzés
Citation
Szónokyné Ancsin Gabriella (szerk:) Magyarok a Kárpát-medencében 4. Közép Európai Monográfiák Szeged : Innovariant Kft., 2020.