Shock propagation channels behind the global economic contagion network. The role of economic sectors and the direction of trade

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dc.author.affiliationDTOhu
dc.author.affiliationNONRKIhu
dc.author.mtmtid10074248
dc.author.mtmtid10015820
dc.author.mtmtid10064566
dc.contributor.authorIloskics, Zita
dc.contributor.authorSebestyén, Tamás
dc.contributor.authorBraun, Erik
dc.coverage.mtmtmtmthu
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-03T09:15:27Z
dc.date.available2021-11-03T09:15:27Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractExamining the spread of macroeconomic phenomena between countries has become increasingly popular after the 2008 economic crisis, but the recent COVID-19 pandemic rendered this issue much more relevant as it shed more light on the risks arising from strongly interconnected economies. This paper intends to extend previous studies in this line by examining the relationship between trade openness and business cycle synchronization. It extends the scope of previous analyses in three areas. First, we use a Granger-causality approach to identify synchronization. Second, trade is broken down to the sector level and third, we distinguish between upstream and downstream connections. These developments allow for a directed approach in the analysis. We use conditional logit regressions to estimate the effect of trade openness on the probability of shock-transmission. The results presented in this study contribute to the literature in two ways. First, in addition to revealing a positive effect of aggregate two-way trade on shock-contagion, it also points out that this overall effect hides diverse behavior in specific trading sectors as well as upstream and downstream channels. Second, while some sectors are not significant channels of shock-transmission in either directions, upstream channels seem to be important in agriculture while downstream channels dominate machinery and other manufactures. Also, there are sectors (chemicals and related products) trade in which affects shock-transmission negatively.hu
dc.description.accessszabadon elérhető / Open accesshu
dc.format.extentfirstpage1hu
dc.format.extentlastpage26hu
dc.format.extentvolume16hu
dc.identifier.citationPlos One 16:(10) Paper: e0258309, 26 p. (2021)hu
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258309hu
dc.identifier.issn1544-9173hu
dc.identifier.mtmt-recordid32464955
dc.identifier.urihttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258309
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11155/2481
dc.languageangolhu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalPlos Onehu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalissue10hu
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0) Nevezd meg!-Ne add el!-Ne változtasd!hu
dc.subjectCOVID-19 járványhu
dc.subjectsokk terjedéshu
dc.subjectglobális gazdasághu
dc.titleShock propagation channels behind the global economic contagion network. The role of economic sectors and the direction of tradeen
dc.typejournalArticlehu
dc.type.descriptionfolyóiratcikkhu
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