Extrapolative techniques’ predictive capacity in the spatial downscaling of the Hungarian gross domestic product

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dc.author.affiliationDTOhu
dc.contributor.authorZsibók, Zsuzsanna
dc.coverage.mtmtmtmthu
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-15T14:08:31Z
dc.date.available2020-01-15T14:08:31Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractThe dynamics of GDP (gross domestic product) and its spatial distribution are constantly at the forefront of economic and regional studies. This study intends to understand better Hungarian sub-national economic processes by checking the predictive capacity of various extrapolative forecasting techniques with out-of-sample testing. The author focuses on a top-down projection method that allocates regional GDP based on an existing, external, national-level, long-term projection. GDP is analysed in its aggregate value and in a decomposition followed in the growth accounting literature. The main question of the out-of-sample tests is the level of usefulness of historical national- and regional-level data in predicting Hungarian regional-level GDP in the long run. The author proposes a specific weighting scheme that combines past regional-level growth rates and predicted national-level growth rates to arrive at different regional-level predictions. She concludes that during the relatively short test period, the average historical inter-regional distribution did not have a determining role in predicting future regional GDP values. The national-level growth processes largely explain regional-level GDP, and the use of certain combinations of past regional-level growth rates and predicted national-level growth rates are recommended to project regional GDP in the long run.hu
dc.description.accessszabadon elérhető / Open accesshu
dc.format.extentfirstpage51hu
dc.format.extentlastpage78hu
dc.format.extentvolume2hu
dc.identifier.citationHungarian Statistical review: Journal of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office 2: (2) pp. 51-78 (2019)hu
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.35618/hsr2019.02.en051hu
dc.identifier.issn2630-9130hu
dc.identifier.mtmt-recordid31125800
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11155/2103
dc.languageangolhu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalHungarian Statistical review: Journal of the Hungarian Central Statistical Officehu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalissue2hu
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0) Nevezd meg!-Ne add el!-Ne változtasd!hu
dc.subjectgazdasági előrejelzéshu
dc.subjectGDPhu
dc.subjectterületi megoszláshu
dc.titleExtrapolative techniques’ predictive capacity in the spatial downscaling of the Hungarian gross domestic producthu
dc.typejournalArticlehu
dc.type.descriptionfolyóiratcikkhu
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