Regionalizing national-level growth projections in the Visegrad Countries – The issue of ex-post rescaling

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dc.author.affiliationDTOhu
dc.author.mtmtid10021598
dc.author.mtmtid10015578
dc.contributor.authorPáger, Balázs
dc.contributor.authorZsibók, Zsuzsanna
dc.coverage.mtmtmtmthu
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-13T12:55:57Z
dc.date.available2020-08-13T12:55:57Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractRegional economic inequalities in the countries of the Visegrad Group appear to be persistent in the long run, and many empirical studies suggest that their further increase is expected, at least in the medium run. Our study provides empirical results with a methodological focus concerning the longterm prediction of regional economic growth in the Visegrad countries. Our method delivers subnational gross domestic product projections in a spatial downscaling approach according to which a selected national-level predicted growth path is downscaled to the regional level. In order to keep the regional results consistent with the national-level prediction, an ex-post proportional rescaling is needed which assures that the regional GDP values sum up to the projected national-level aggregate. This article examines the issues emerging from the practice of ex-post rescaling and uses out-ofsample tests on historical data sets to analyse the consequences of various methodological options. Taking into account the pros and cons, our study argues for the usefulness of ex-post rescaling in the case of the regional GDP downscaling in the Visegrad countries.hu
dc.description.accessszabadon elérhető / Open accesshu
dc.format.extentfirstpage1hu
dc.format.extentlastpage23hu
dc.format.extentvolume14hu
dc.identifier.citationRomanian Journal of Regional Science 14:(1) pp. 1-23. (2020)hu
dc.identifier.issn1843-8520hu
dc.identifier.mtmt-recordid31365369
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11155/2232
dc.languageangolhu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalRomanian Journal of Regional Sciencehu
dc.relation.ispartofjournalissue1hu
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0) Nevezd meg!-Ne add el!-Ne változtasd!hu
dc.subjectvisegrádi országokhu
dc.subjectregionális gazdaságfejlődés - visegrádi országokhu
dc.subjectregionális fejlődés - visegrádi országokhu
dc.titleRegionalizing national-level growth projections in the Visegrad Countries – The issue of ex-post rescalingen
dc.typejournalArticlehu
dc.type.descriptionfolyóiratcikkhu
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